This calculator estimates a casino bonus’s real expected value — not the marketing headline. Enter the deposit, bonus percentage, wagering requirement and the game you plan to play, and it works out the bonus amount, what you’ll really have to wager, the estimated cost of clearing it, and an honest verdict.
It’s a mathematical model built on long-run averages (RTP and wagering math), not a guarantee of what happens in your own session — treat the result as a guide, not a promise.
How the calculator works
The verdict above comes from one standard expected-value formula:
Expected value = bonus amount − (real amount wagered × house edge)
Each input feeds that formula:
- Bonus amount is your deposit multiplied by the bonus percentage. A 100% bonus on €100 is €100 in bonus funds.
- Wagering requirement is how many times you must bet the bonus (or deposit + bonus) before you can withdraw. A 35× requirement on a €100 bonus is €3,500 of stated wagering.
- Game contribution weights that figure. Slots usually count 100%, but blackjack often counts only 10% — so the same requirement can force up to 10× more real money through the game. The calculator uses 100% for slots, 10% for blackjack, 20% for roulette and 10% for live tables, matching typical terms.
- House edge is 1 − RTP. At 96% RTP the house keeps 4% of everything wagered on average. Multiply the real amount wagered by that edge and you get the expected cost of clearing the bonus.
Subtract that cost from the bonus and you have the bonus’s honest expected value — what an average player is left with over the long run, not a promise for any single session.
How to read the verdict
The tool sorts the result into four bands based on expected value as a share of the bonus:
- Worth it — positive expected value. Rare, and usually only on low-wagering or no-wagering offers.
- Borderline — a small expected loss (down to about −5%). Close to break-even; fine as cheap entertainment.
- Play for fun — a meaningful expected loss (−5% to −20%). You are paying for playtime, not value.
- Skip — a heavy expected loss (worse than −20%). The terms work firmly against you.
Why game choice matters most
Wagering contribution is the single biggest lever. A 35× bonus cleared on slots is 35× of real play; cleared on blackjack at 10% contribution it becomes 350× in real money through the game — and every euro of that is exposed to the house edge. That is why a bonus that looks “worth it” on slots can turn into a clear “skip” the moment you switch games.
Frequently asked questions
Does a high bonus percentage mean a good bonus?
No. The percentage only sets the bonus amount. The wagering requirement, the eligible games and their RTP decide whether that amount survives the playthrough. A 50% bonus at 20× can easily beat a 200% bonus at 50×.
What is a “fair” wagering requirement?
For slots, requirements at or below about 30–35× are generally considered reasonable; above 50× the expected value is almost always negative. Always check whether the multiplier applies to the bonus only or to deposit + bonus — the second roughly doubles the work.
Why does a “worth it” bonus still usually lose money?
Expected value is a long-run average. A small positive EV means that across thousands of players the offer is marginally in your favour, but variance means most individual players will still finish a session down. Positive EV improves your odds; it does not guarantee a profit.
Related tools
The calculator gives you the average. To see the range of outcomes that average hides — how often you would actually clear a bonus versus bust — run the same numbers through our Slot Session Simulator.
18+. Gambling should be entertainment, never a way to make money. If it stops being fun, take a break.
